Well, there are two factors influencing the pps of mnta.
One is long term and one is short term.
Long term is the FOB factor. In a sense, the deal is done. It's over. Now it is a matter of seeing results meaning Anda applications, nda applications whatever. How long before we see an FOB application and how long before we get approval. Experience with enox and copaxone seem to indicate that approval may take some time and that is after the application(s) has been submitted. I can't imagine anything happening on this front in less than 2-3 for applications and at least 2-3 yrs for approval (assuming by then there has been clarification from the fda on the regulatory pathway).
Thus we back to the short term. I see 2 things , mcopax and the uncertainty about m-enox. Mcopax has two elements : approval and result from patent trial. 2 events and thus 4 possibilities. YY,YN,etc...It's up to each of us to evaluate the sequences of events and their effects. My wag is no better than yours.
Wrt to Ampha , it looks to me that the omelette has been made and there is little possibility to get the eggs back whole. Thus it is a matter of how much damage mnta can claw back from Ampha/wpi in the case they win in court. In the mean time, we pretty much can assume the m-enox revenue stream will be very limited compared to the past yr.
At 15 and changes, mnta is barely 10% above where it was just before menox got approved and we no longer have the FOB deal to juice up the imagination.
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