Replies to post #137272 on Biotech Values

[OakesCS]

If you're referring to the MVRBF shares, then there's an extra digit but i'll take a 5% jump.

the impressive thing is the jump in volume. I was beginning to think i was the only person buying since Sept ;^)

edit. my bad i see you explicitly referred to Stockholm

[mcbio]

Medivir - 4Q11 CC notes

[FWIW, I now have a small position in Medivir.]

1. Medivir expects current cash to last them until time they are profitable.

2. Medivir's pre-clinical early-stage nucleotide and NS5A are both unpartnered. (They do have a slightly later-stage pre-clinical nucleotide partnered with Janssen that is set to enter the clinic this year.)

3. Data from the first cohort of TMC435/GS7977 Phase 2 combo trial expected in 4Q12. (I think this is potentially the key event for Medivir. If data is positive both from safety standpoint and the data shows on efficacy front that TMC435 can add on to GS7977's efficacy in a meaningful way, I think this would position TMC435 quite nicely. Conversely, if there is some sort of safety signal or TMC435 doesn't add to GS7977's efficacy in a meaningful way, that would obviously be a very negative development for TMC435. I think the drug could still be approved provided the ongoing Phase 3 trials go well but I would think there would be lingering questions on the commercial front given the expected move to DAA combos.)

4. Medivir expects additional Phase 3 trials of TMC435 vs. Telaprevir in prior null and partial responder patients to commence this quarter. (I'm not 100% certain but I think they will be testing in additional genotypes in this trial; prior trials have only tested in genotype 1. If anyone listens to the CC, please clarify if this is your understanding as well.)

5. 2Q12 - start of Phase 2 TMC435+daclatasvir combo trial.

6. 4Q12 - top-line results from Phase 3 TMC435 trials (Quest 1, 2 and Promise).

7. They also talked about non-HCV PIs they have targeting Cathepsin K and S focused on osteoporosis and pain/RA, respectively. The former should enter clinic first half of this year.