Replies to post #136892 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

CLDX -

Or are you posting this to show how difficult this patient population is to treat and how meaningful any kind of response from 011 could be?

I looked it up in order to try to figure out how the ORR for the ph i/ii trial (worst case around 10%) maps to the upcoming randomized trial given that the ph i/ii had a median number of previous treatments of 7 and the randomized trial has a max of 7 allowed. Based upon this one small datapoint I'd guess that the 10% ORR maps to maybe 13 to 15% - albeit with a lot of uncertainty.

And we should expect perhaps 5% ORR in the physician's choice treatment arm. So I still wouldn't expect stat sig even if it is a viable drug. Could happen - but I wouldn't count on it.