I agree. TPS/REITS have two (2) different TPS Groups. Each Group is made up of a hand full of hedgies, etc.
My thoughts are that they will leverage their position some voting "no" with releases to the plan, and with some of their strategic positions, vote "no" with withOUT releases thereby preserving their potential full equity claim amount in the billions, which indirectly allows other Class 19 members more new shares distribution per old shares, i.e. more than 17.xx.
In addition to the 'possible" change in the 70/30 split, of course.
Here are just a few:
(i) Black Horse Capital LP and Black Horse Capital Master Fund Ltd (together, “Black Horse”): c/o Black Horse Capital Advisors LLC 338 S. Sharon Amity Rd, #202 Charlotte, NC 28211
(ii) Greywolf Capital Partners II LP, Greywolf Capital Overseas Master Fund, Greywolf Opportunities Fund II LP, Greywolf Structured Products Master Fund, Ltd. and Greywolf Capital Overseas Fund II (together, “Greywolf”): c/o Greywolf Capital Management LP 4 Manhattanville Road, Suite 201 Purchase, NY 10577
(iii) Pine Edge Value Investors Ltd., Pine River Convertibles Master Fund Ltd. (f/k/a Nisswa Convertibles Master Fund Ltd.), Pine River Fixed Income Master Fund Ltd. (f/k/a Nisswa Fixed Income Master Fund Ltd.) and Pine River Master Fund Ltd. (f/k/a Nisswa Master Fund Ltd.), LMA SPC for and on behalf of the MAP 89 Segregated Portfolio (together, “Pine River”): c/o Pine River Capital Management L.P. 601 Carlson Parkway, Suite 330 Minnetonka, MN 55305
(iv) Scoggin Worldwide Fund Ltd., Scoggin Capital Management LP II and Scoggin International Fund Ltd. (together, “Scoggin”): c/o Scoggin Capital Management 660 Madison Avenue New York, NY 10065
(v) Visium Global Master Fund, Ltd. and Visium Catalyst Credit Master Fund, Ltd. (together, “Visium”): c/o Visium Asset Management, LP 950 Third Avenue, 29th Floor New York, NY 10022
(vi) VR Global Partners, L.P. (“VR Global”): c/o VR Capital Group Aurora Business Park 77 Sadovnicheskaya Nab. Moscow 115035, Russia
The number right now is 17.7333 newco shares per P. I strongly doubt that it will be less than that, but there several factors that could make it more than that. Most likely, not everyone submits their releases in time. My guess is that that alone bumps us to maybe 19.
Some responded "nobody knows". True, but there is a reasonable range that one can establish if they have a calculator and a decent understanding of the potential variables. Also, the judge could increase the % of newco shares going to class 19.
Right now, my range is 17.7333 as a bottom and 25 as a top (and the top is really an extreme). Realistically, I think 18.5-19.5 will be the number.