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higger1298

02/08/12 1:13 PM

#39835 RE: darkwind #39817

This is a triple bottom... Plain and simple. If you know about charts, you would be all over this.

Triple Bottom Chart Pattern

A triple bottom formation is the mirror image of the triple top. After an extended decline to new lows a stock puts-in a bottom on massive volume and a moderate rally ensues. After several sessions (sometimes weeks) the stock drifts back to test the first bottom and once again buyers push the stock higher. This process is repeated a third time before buyers finally overwhelm sellers and the stock moves significantly higher.

Why Does It Happen?

Whereas triple tops are all about distribution, the triple bottom is about accumulation. After an extended decline characterized by aggressive short-selling and valuation concerns, value-oriented investors with longer-term time horizons begin to take positions in the stock. They understand that the only way to build a large position in a stock that they like is to do so when selling predominates. It is their willingness to buy the stock when all of the news is bad that creates a clear support level, the first bottom (bottom#1). This presence of large buyers in the face of bad fundamental news will normally be sufficient to force many professional short sellers (bears) to cover positions. This coupled with buying from longer-term value investors may be enough to rejuvenate investors that recently purchased the stock at higher levels -- they may even rationalize that the "market" is finally beginning to realize that the current weakness is without merit and a few bullish speculators may be enticed to take new long positions. Unfortunately, after several sessions of positive price action buying pressures are exhausted and the stock once again begins to falter. The positive price reaction to the decline that formed bottom#1 is complete. Technical traders call this the reaction high.

Amid continued negative fundamental news, short sellers return and bullish speculators decide to take profits. What begins as modest selling quickly becomes a route. As the stock approaches bottom#1 volumes remains light and in many cases the stock will actually fall through the previous low on very light volume. It is at this point in time that pessimism is greatest, there seems to be no legitimate reason to continue holding the stock. Novice short sellers add new short positions and beleaguered bulls who purchased the stock at much higher levels begin to surrender in anticipation of a new leg lower. However the expected big decline does materialize because longer-term investors continue to buy the dips in price. A new rally begins as short sellers are forced to buy stock to cover short positions. As a second bottom (bottom#2) begins to take shape the pace of short covering accelerates and the stock quickly rallies toward the reaction high. Although the rally is sharp, volume remains light. It is at this point that a new wave of bad news hits the stock price. Bearish investors feel vindicated and the stock slumps back toward bottoms #1 and #2. It is at this point in time that pessimism is greatest, there seems to be no legitimate reason to continue holding the stock. New short sellers add short positions and beleaguered bulls that purchased the stock at much higher levels finally capitulate, volume swells but oddly, support at bottoms #1 and #2 holds. Professional short sellers start to sense that the "jig is up", the stock is not going down. The price begins to stabilize and a third bottom (bottom#3) becomes apparent. Suddenly, the flow of news becomes less pessimistic, short sellers begin to panic and a massive rally ensues. The stock rallies through the peak set between bottoms #2 and #3. On the chart three equal bottoms are created, the triple bottom is in place. In many cases triple bottoms lead to important rallies because a vital support level has been established at both the bottoms and the reaction high.