One thing that troubles me is that wave 4 is usually .618 of the entire retrace. I don't see that on the chart. Also, with 82 percent chance of rate cut (I see that as 4 out of 5 traders believing they will cut rates) I still don't see a mad rush for the door like I would expect. Probably some good dip coming but may still work out to be the least evil carry trade around.