from another board
Reserve Increases ...
On the Tag Oil website:
Proven reserves are 1.36 million barrels and 1.864 bcf of gas.
Possible reserves are 755,000 barrels and 0.926 bcf of gas.
Total: 2.115 million barrels, 2.790 bcf of gas.
Then for the best case - undiscovered possible reserves for the 6 prospects that they have identified 19.0625 million barrels.
The company says on their presentation with respect to reserves that, "2P reserves at March 2012 –material increase expected"
Cheal - they indicate: "Mt. Messenger –OOIP 10 million barrels in Cheal A and B pool only (<6% of acreage)"
Urenui -OOIP 8 million barrels in Cheal-A pool only (<5% of acreage); Urenui present in all 13 wells to date.
Moki - Moki–OOIP: TBD 200 meter thick formation with 75 meters of gross sandstone: no reserves booked yet
Mt. Messenger recovery factors presently16%; 25% recovery factor anticipated with water flood now underway.
Essentially, they don't have reserves booked for some of the new wells including the Sidewinder wells. To determine what reserves might be, I've looked at analogs. The closest field to the Sidewinder area is the Ngatoro oil field. The Ngatoro field reserves for gas are 28.5 bcf of natural gas, and 8.8 million barrels of oil. Production from the Ngatoro field is grouped with the Kaimioro field. The two fields together are producing about 500 bo/d and 5.78 mmcfg/d. Production for those fields began in 1992.
The best gas well in the Ngatoro field was the Ngatoro-3. It produced both from the Mt Messenger but also the Moki. The Mt. Messenger production was 5.4 mmcfg/d and the upper Moki was 4.3 mmcfg/d. Some of the wells produced water as well as oil and gas in the Ngatoro field. The Sidewinder area and the entire Tag Oil Broadside permit is up-dip of the Ngatoro field on the other side of some faults. As oil and gas migrates, faults provide a good pathway upwards. The Broadside permit being on the up-dip side of a fault from the Ngatoro field might be one reason that in the Sidewinder area, they have a lot of structural relief above the oil/gas water contact.
Every well that Tag Oil has drilled is better than the best well in the Ngatoro field except for the well Ngatoro-3 that produced from both the Mt. Messenger and Moki formations. At this point, Tag Oil probably has somewhere from 30 to 100 bcfe reserves in the Sidewinder area. Flow results and well declines should allow them to more accurately determine the amount of gas that they have.
At Cheal, there is no good analog, but based on one well the Cheal C5 well, if it is an 80 acre structure - it would have about 3.5 million barrels of recoverable reserves. That is more than the current reserves. Other wells and the results that they are having should add about 15 to 20 million barrels recoverable.
My guess at current P1 and P2 reserves are about 60 bcfe and 15 to 20 million barrels of oil. I think that figure will grow in the future as they have additional discoveries.
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