Replies to post #135728 on Biotech Values

[biotech jim]

Question about the biotech newbie investor mistake list???

But before the question, I must quote a very bright former colleague of mine: "We are all not as smart as we think we are." My corollary to that regarding biotech investingis that we are not as good as we think we are, and that we are all newbies in one way or another.

Here is a related concept as in the newbie mistake list:

12. “If a company holds an investor conference call on a different day of the week (or a different time of day) from prior conference calls, it means a hugely bullish announcement is coming!”

We all know that companies often (ie all the time?) post bad news after the market close, especially on Fridays. So does it hold that companies will post solid up to great news on a Monday morning prior to the markets opening for the week?

Just wondering, largely in a rhetorical way I guess.

http://newsroom.regeneron.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=642833

http://newsroom.regeneron.com/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=647943

Would it matter that the company above had it's prior 14 earnings reports (or 'lack of earnings' report entirely on Tuesdays and Thurday with one Wednesday thrown in? Probably not. Whether the stock sells off on the news is a different matter.

Just some weekend musings.

[iandy]

Miscellaneous:

If an analyst has a hold or sell rating on my stock they are either incompetent or are misleading retail investors for nefarious reasons.

[Biowatch]

Ouch!

It’s a good sign when a company announces job cuts after market close and before a three day holiday. It means the company no longer needs their skills.

It’s a good sign when the CEO spits coffee on their keyboard when a lowly technician asks about stock options. The CEO wants everyone to benefit, some sooner than others.

The CEO suddenly quits to bicycle around the world. It reflects determination.

A large increase in volume means the shorts are afraid and want to minimize their losses.

[DewDiligence]

Addendum to the biotech-newbie-mistake list:

If a biotech CEO says he’s had 25 recent face-to-face meetings with prospective partners, run the other way. There are not enough hours in the day for that! (Apropos to PPHM.)

[DewDiligence]

New item for the newbie-mistake list: If a small biotech company files a shelf registration, it must mean that a partner is on board who is demanding an equity stake!

See PPHM board today.

[DewDiligence]

Even now, some companies make a big deal out of the FDA’s old Fast Track designation, which means almost nothing; a case in point:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fda-grants-transtech-pharma-inc-220000306.html

[DewDiligence]

Re: Common Biotech-Newbie Mistakes

Here’s another item for the list:

“If the share price is falling, insiders must be manipulating the price lower to get new stock options as cheaply as possible.”

[DewDiligence]

New item for the biotech newbie list (an elaboration of item #13)….

If a former executive from another biotech company had a track record of bringing products to market at his/her old company, the track record is certain to carry over to the company where he/she currently works, ensuring both regulatory and commercial success of all products in the pipeline.

(See #msg-112463455.)

[DewDiligence]

New PPHM message-board canard: Because the planned new trials are open-label (#msg-114186450), it must mean that Bavituximab is working and is a lock for approval.

Worthy of inclusion in the list?

[BioChica]

I would have to object to these two statements below. I don't think any professional, joins a company in hopes of it being a failure. Rather they believe they have something to offer! I believe these statements are rather childish.

13. “If a former executive from Big Pharma joins a small biotech company, it means the small company must be a winner!”

14. “If the company’s Scientific Advisory Board has one or two famous individuals, it means the company’s drug candidates must work. These people would not align themselves with a failure!”