For 30 to 90 days horizons SPX: Sold SPX on 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; long 1241.30 on 12/20/11. Monitoring purposes GOLD: Gold ETF GLD long at 173.59 on 9/21/11 Long Term Trend monitor purposes: Flat
Above is the hour chart of the VIX with the Bollinger band set for the daily. We are still getting warning signs from the VIX. When the hourly RSI (25) of the VIX trades at 30 and the VIX brakes the lower boundary line of its Bollinger Band then a warning sign for the market is issued. This indicator works well but not all signals work out. We have labeled with red circles when the VIX breaks the lower Bollinger band (bearish) and with blue circles when the VIX breaks the upper Bollinger band (Bullish). over the last couple of days the lower Bollinger bands have been broken and suggests a pull back in the market. Since the 100 day TRIN is in bullish territory, we would look for a bullish signal on a pull back. Market is extended but for right now the momentum is up. Sold SPX 12/29/11 at 1263.02 for gain of 1.75%; Long SPX on 12/20/11 at 1241.30.
Above is the weekly chart of GDX. The monthly chart remains on a buy signal that was triggered on October 1, 2011 by the XAU/Gold ratio analysis. The Bottom window is the weekly Slow Stochastics and has turned up at the end of December and remains in an uptrend. We have a blue downtrend line connecting the highs from the September high. A strong bullish signal was arise with a “Sign of Strength” through that line. On the GDX/GLD ratio a close above the blue line would add to the bullish picture which we expect to happen shortly. The daily chart below is in bullish mode.
Today’s trading in GDX produced a candlestick pattern called a “Bullish Engulfing”. The more days a Bullish Engulfing pattern engulfs the stronger the signal. Today’s Bullish Engulfing pattern engulfed eight days and suggests a strong signal. Today’s rally was also accompanied by a jump in volume which suggest and impulse wave is starting. GDX should go up in a five wave count and today’s rally may be the start of wave 3. Next short term target is the previous highs of December and November from 61 to 63 range. The bullish percent index turned up and closed above 20 which is bullish and the Slow Stochastics closed above 20 and suggests and impulse wave up has started. Long GDX 58.65 on 12/6/11. Long SLV at 29.48 on 10/20/11. Long GDXJ at 36.24 on 9/21/11. Long GLD at 173.59 on 9/21/11. Long BRD at 1.67 on 8/3/11. Long YNGFF .44 on 7/6/11. Long EGI at 2.16, on 6/30/11. Long GLD at 147.14 on 6/29/11; stop 170 hit = gain 15.5% . Long KBX at 1.13 on 11/9/10. Long LODE at 2.85 on 1/21/11. Long UEXCF at 2.07 on 1/5/11. We will hold as our core position in AUQ, CDE and KGC because in the longer term view these issues will head much higher. Holding CDE (average long at 27.7. Long cryxf at 1.82 on 2/5/08. KGC long at 6.07. Long AUQ average of 8.25. For examples in how "Ord-Volume" works, visit www.ord-oracle.com.
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