Replies to post #13473 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

spartex re DNDN:

>>Could you share what news you've discovered that would indicate that DNDN may have mediocre 9902a survival data as well as company scrambling to control the damage?<<

First of all, I’d like to keep this discussion in perspective: I had averaged down aggressively (documented with real-time posts on this board), and it was only natural to take some profits after a 40% rise off the low. I’m not outright bearish, and I still have a decent-sized holding.

Now, let’s back up to last winter. When DNDN didn’t release the interim 9902a survival data at the ASCO/Prostate conference in February, I figured it was because they hadn’t had enough time to analyze the data thoroughly. Moreover, it made sense to me that DNDN might want to save these data for the main ASCO meeting in May, where they would make a much bigger splash than at the Prostate conference. There was even an entry on the ASCO website indicating that there would be a 9902a presentation at the main ASCO meeting in May.

Well, ASCO came and went with nary a peep about 9902a. Supposedly, the entry on the ASCO website for a 9902a presentation was a mistake, but that hardly matters in the overall scheme of things. The real question is this: if the 9902a interim survival data are compelling, why the silence?

Small biotech companies rarely go out of their way to conceal really good data. Very rarely. Hence my bullishness dropped a notch when nothing was said about 9902a at ASCO. It dropped another notch when the company announced the CFO’s resignation a few weeks later.

So here we are—it’s unambiguously summer and we are waiting for the press release about the final 9902 data. If these data are good, the PR will probably contain at least a modicum of quantitative detail; if the data are not so good, the PR will probably be terse and speak in qualitative terms only. Regards, Dew

p.s. I do not have any information about the road show.