Replies to post #60140 on ETF SWING & DAY TRADING

[Duma]

Gloe, I think that your idea is great. The chart clearly shows that 2008 is different than all the other years. I think adapting MACD > 0 as a VTO filter makes a lot of sense.

It looks like there might have still been a buy or two in the May 2008 time frame that could have turned out bad, but one bad trade is much better than a year's worth.

As far as missing the rally off the bottom, I don't see that as a problem. VTO is not designed for rallies. VTO is a hit and run strategy for pullbacks.

However, I have noticed several times that by the time VTO gets to a sell signal all the normal indicators are saying buy, so in reality VTO can become a great swing strategy to catch the bottoms when nothing else sees them and then stay with the rally.

I also have a weekly chart where I use two different MACD's, one for selling and one for buying that works pretty good. I have adopted the strategy of being slow to sell, but faster to buy. This avoids a lot of whipsaws and gets one back in the market fast after a sharp dip.

[mr_cassandra]

avoiding big selloffs but missing big rallies. imo this has always been the hard part between not pursuing knife catching by waiting for indicators to turn up, but then not missing the huge moves that occur before they do.

I have made many mistakes and am always learning but my current work avoids rushing into buys when vix is way above long term average and scales into buys rather than always go full in.

There is never going to be any perfection in buys and sells, the key is to work with the least imperfection possible, concentrating on capturing as much as possible as often as possibe