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tradersplaybook

01/04/12 12:54 AM

#110 RE: MNYC #107

We posted some of this information in our video for today. We see the real issues for SHLD piling up in about 2 to 3 quarters. At the moment, SHLD does appear to be on the oversold side. You could potentially make a play to the long side, but the bounce isn't going to be very strong. In our opinion, the company is in terminal decline at this point. They have announced a few initiatives along with the store closings, but we don't have a lot of faith in those really changing the trend. SHLD is a broken stock. They aren't going to close their gap. This is the kind of company where you get short the stock on any decent advance, possibly buy a partial call position to give you a little bit of upside protection, then sit back and let time drag this stock down to the $15-$17 area. SHLD is entering into the death spiral zone that dragged down another great Chicago retailer, Montgomery Ward. We're technical traders and typically don't include any fundamental issues in our trading, but this was a pick for the rest of 2012. So in light of that, we'd say that the charts and the fundamentals look broken in SHLD and time will grind this company down.