I am quietly confident earnings will be higher than my simple calculation. As I've written for the past couple of months, the dip in share price is a buying opportunity. That dip extends out to about $0.0025 using the Earning/10 Year T-Bill valuation model.
Assuming there's no dilution in 2012 and no further growth you have a model for the upper limit you should look to pay when purchasing $SEEK shares.
Buying thesis:
- January 11, 2012 marks six straight months with no dilution.
- TD 2.0 is already paid for from internal funds.
- BusinessList.com is immediately accretive to earnings.
- TD 1.0 has proven profitable for the past eight consecutive months and incresaingly so.
- Share buyback starts in 2012 on a monthly basis.
On the basis of all the above, if $SEEK trades anywhere below $0.0015 its an active buy and hold, between $0.0016-$0.0020 a limited hold moving to a buy and hold over time, and above that a trade (with re-evaluation after the next quarter's results are released [not the one just closed on 11/30/2011]).