Replies to post #11899 on Muscle Pharm Corporation (MSLPQ)

[Odessa99]

Bulldog2, I agree with everything you have stated below, with the exception of one item. I believe that your projection of $40 million revenue for calendar year 2012 is a little low. Here's my rationale. Muscle Pharm has released publicly that sales for last month (November) were approx $2.7 million. If you simply straight-lined that for the 12 months of 2012, the total sales would equal $32 million. But an analysis of the prior year's 3rd quarter year-over-year sales comps show growth of 308% ($5.41 MM compared to $1.41 MM) and the first 6 months year-over-year sales comps show growth of 324% ($7.32 MM compared to $1.73 MM). While I do not expect that sales can continue to grow at that pace, it would seem reasonable to expect decent sales growth. If sales for next November grew only 100% from 2011 levels (a big reduction from the 300% avg sales growth in 2011), Muscle Pharm will book $5.4 million in sales in November of 2012. With a likely $15 million sales quarter in 4th qtr 2012, I would now expect sales of at around $50 million for full year 2012. We're not far off in the sales estimate, but the additional $10 million I have computed would yield between $3 million and $4 million in additional gross profit (since MP's gross margin percentage is in the 30s range). That additional $3 - $4 million can fund a whole lot of marketing and promotion. If they can do that level of sales for 2012 ($50 million), the valuation could be a bit greater than the $60 million you have projected, but I think you are on the right track. As always, simply my opinion.

I sold part of my position, but I still believe MP is way too hot for this Company not to pop. It should do $40M next year and be valued at $60M. This will only happen if there is some external pressure to control spending. I really thought when they hired John B., that he would make a difference, but that has not been very evident to date.

Dilution is going to happen to meet the growth projections, but we do not need to add wasteful spending on top of the investments. Has Muscle Pharm ever stuck to a budget? They also better figure a way to communicate and appreciate their shareholders!