Replies to post #15141 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[DonShimoda]

yes, but, remember man who waits for roast duck to fly into mouth must wait very, very long time.

[lax20m]

6 billiion is not a fair valuation at this time. You are saying what you think this company could be worth if every one of its drugs comes to market and performs as expected. you haven't accounted for the possibility that

1. the drugs may not make it to market
2. the drugs may be less effective than projected
3. the company may encouter difficulty in transforming into an operating company and will be able to manufacture and/or market the drug.
4. other companies may develop superior drugs that will erode sales demand.
5. Overhauls to the US healthcare system will erode profitability.
6 etc
7 etc
8 etc

You have to discount your rosy projections for all the unknowns.