Replies to post #5846 on General Stock Ideas

[Market_Fest4]

Big,
I don't know about your alanysis here. If the VIX is only at 27 now, this downside could have another leg or two.
MF4

[gfp927z]

Bigworld, Here's a system I'm considering for timing the overall market (see below).

It's very simple, using the MACD Histogram and Full Stochastic indicators. You only trade once/month or so, and just wait for the indicators to show overbought and oversold levels. It isn't exact, but it will get you in when the market is relatively oversold, and out when it's relatively overbought. The system I came up with actually uses 3 additional indicators for added confirmation.

According to this system, you would have exited the market early last week, and would currently be in cash awaiting an oversold signal (Full Stochastics dropping to/below 20, and blue lines of the MACD Histogram elongating below the midline). The reverse will occur at market tops (Stochastics at/over 80). This system isn't perfect, but it should put a swing trader in the right general ballpark, and removes some of the emotional aspect (something I could sure use, lol) Also, with this approach I figure I won't have to sit in front of the charts all day. I figure it has to be better than risky pincher plays and the like, so it's worth a try -