Replies to post #14880 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[DonShimoda]

It's hard for me to come up with a $400mm peak sales scenario that's realistic. If sprycel/tasigna continue to take 1st line market share, pona will end up capturing an even greater share of the 2nd line market which is approaching $1 billion, today. Even if gleevec (or its generic) is able to maintain its first line market share, the anticipated confirmatory study should position pona well in 1st line high-risk pts in addition to T315I which, combined with high-risk pts, could readily generate 400MM alone.

[lax20m]

Well thats the interesting part, Barclays with peak sales estimate of 1.8 billion have a price target of 19 where merril with peak sales of 400M have a price target of 16. they both used similar discount rates, I believe 10 vs 11%. I think one of the firms better check there other assumptions because they have a 4X revenue differential with a similar price target. Doesn't make much sense.