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RockQQ

11/22/11 7:14 PM

#8260 RE: PWron #8193

Well now if I knew that for sure, I could make a billion trading it!

We just had a very substantial sell-off. From $5.90 at its intraday high in June to .56 the other day is a 90%+ fall in PPS. From a $2.25 close to where we are now in just 2 weeks is also substantial. Volume was very high yesterday with over a million traded, volume which hasn't been seen in many months. I didn't know when I called two weeks ago for a 'big move coming' that it could be this big in the down direction, but that's what you get with a stock that was basically indecisive for 3 months.

Usually fibonacci patterns play into this, and you could normally expect between 38 and 62 percent of the fall from $2.25 to .56 to be made up fairly quickly. That's why I'm still of the opinion that we can very easily get back into the mid $1.30 range fairly soon, perhaps a bit more or less than $1.30 but in that range...even $1.80 is possible too...a few days is all it should take once all the selling diminishes. Today was a good sign of the start of the kind of bounceback that could normally be expected. And if you want another good sign, we have already bounced to .90 from our .56 intraday low yesterday, in just a day and a half of trading.

Nevertheless, there is still a chance, although the chance is less, that today was only a bear rally and we have one more down leg to go with the selling. I posted a few days ago that, if this stock is filling all the gaps from February, that .30 is a possibility. So if the selling restarts I think .30 is the low it could hit.

But this selling has been without news from the company of anything bad, and so I suspect that it was just a necessary sell-off made worse by the fact that there were no technical levels below $2.11 that could offer support. I mentioned for months how important $2.11 was as the 'lowest low' of our 5-month downtrend -- once that was broken, we had no other rungs on the ladder to hold on to...and the sell off was like a free-fall especially from $1.68.

Overall I'm optimistic that this selling was overdone to .56, and I think we will see the $1.30-$1.80 fairly quickly once the selling is really over. But there is a chance for .30 as well, though less. I'd look for tomorrow and Friday to confirm which it will be, it's hard to make a confident call based on just this single 'up' day.