Replies to post #14240 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[JJM760]

He knows this company better than I do. Combine that with his general biotech knowledge and he has my attention.

I think he was bored and is enjoying busting balls, fwiw.

[iandy]

>...i dont think he has followed aria closely enough as others have. including many on this board.<

He follows the stock close enough to give opinions on it.
Here is his original post from BV:

ARIA strikes me as a potentially profitable short. Reasons:

• The enterprise value is a whopping $1.5B (fully-diluted).

• Even knowledgeable posters claim that Ponatinib is a “lock” for FDA approval based on interim data, so hugely bullish expectations are already baked in.

• The CEO is untrustworthy and has a propensity for pumping that goes beyond what you typically see for a small biotech.

• At least one and possibly two generic competitors for Ponatinib will be on the market in the next few years.

• Expensive cancer drugs for niche markets are, by and large, a bad business proposition; they will be among the easiest targets for government-mandated price controls in the US (and around the world).

Feedback welcome.

*The EV is high.
*Expectations for approval are high.
*Harvey might not "untrustworthy" but he has always had a propensity to gush.
*Generic Gleevec is coming eventually.
*There is a widespread expectation that there will be government intervention at some future date.

It really wasn't that big a deal IMO.
I was more interested in the responses than the critique.
Dew actually later conceded Pona might quickly become de facto second line.
I don't understand why people seem to need everyone to agree with them that their investments are awesome.