Replies to post #159429 on Tornado Alley (PROG)

[F6]

Stephanie -- Israel has not signed the NPT (nor have India and Pakistan), thus (absent separate agreement) not under the jurisdiction of the IAEA

Iran, a signatory to the NPT, does keep pushing, evidently banking significantly on the reality that a shove back could and likely would prove very costly -- risky business

the world, the whole international community, as such, does have legitimate interest that these things not spread further, and for that matter, that these things ultimately cease to exist

it is clear that Iran keeps pushing

and that as it does, it becomes less and less inarguable that in this instance, at this point or some point near, a shove back could be appropriate and legitimate

risky business

[fuagf]

What’s in the IAEA’s report on Iran’s nuclear program?


A Ghadr 1 class Shahab 3 long range missile is prepared for launch during a test
from an unknown location in central Iran in 2009.

National Post Staff Nov 8, 2011 – 11:17 PM ET | Last Updated: Nov 8, 2011 11:27 PM ET

The title of the report may be dull — Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran — but the implications could be explosive. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) lays out “credible” evidence that Iran is working towards developing a nuclear weapon. Among the report’s main findings:

TOWARD A WEAPON
The IAEA said that in a possible bid to develop a nuclear explosive device, Iran had undertaken the following work:

* Efforts, some successful, to procure nuclear related and dual
use equipment and materials by military related individuals and entities;

* Efforts to develop undeclared pathways for the production of nuclear material;

* The acquisition of nuclear weapons development information
and documentation from a clandestine nuclear supply network, and

* Work on the development of an indigenous design of a nuclear weapon including the testing of components.

The IAEA said that before the end of 2003 such work was part of a “structured
programme” but it continued afterwards and “may still be ongoing.”

Related

U.S. lawmakers urge tough response to report on Iran's nuclear program
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/11/08/u-s-lawmakers-urge-tough-response-to-report-on-irans-nuclear-programs/

'Serious concerns' about Iran's nuclear programs: UN watchdog report
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/11/08/serious-concerns-about-irans-nucelar-programs-un-watchdog-report/

Graphic: How Israel could strike Iran’s nuclear program
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/11/04/graphic-how-israel-could-stike-irans-nuclear-program/

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warns against attack on Iran in lead up to nuclear report
http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/11/08/what%E2%80%99s-in-the-iaeas-report-on-irans-nuclear-program/

Read the full report .. http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/11/08/read-the-full-iaea-report-on-irans-nuclear-program/

MISSILE PAYLOAD
The IAEA said it had established a link between two projects involving nuclear material and a new payload development program for the Shabab 3 missile. The “green salt” project (Project 5) was to provide a source of uranium suitable for use in an undisclosed enrichment program. The product of this program would be converted into metal for use in a new warhead which was the subject of the missile re-entry vehicle project (Project 111). “The Agency was shown documents which established a connection between Project 5 and Project 111, and hence a link between nuclear material and a new payload development programme.”

THE AMAD PLAN
The IAEA said a suspected weapons project, known as the AMAD plan, was abruptly stopped by Tehran in late 2003. Afterwards, “staff remained in place to record and document the achievements of their respective projects”. It added, “Subsequently, equipment and work places were either cleaned or disposed of so that there would be little to identify the sensitive nature of the work which had been undertaken.” Individuals on the AMAD plan had also obtained or tried to obtain equipment, material and services which might have civilian applications but would also be “useful in the development of a nuclear explosive device. “Among such equipment, materials and services are: high speed electronic switches and spark gaps (useful for triggering and firing detonators); high speed cameras (useful in experimental diagnostics); neutron sources (useful for calibrating neutron measuring equipment); radiation detection and measuring equipment (useful in a nuclear material production environment); and training courses on topics relevant to nuclear explosives development (such as neutron cross section calculations and shock wave interactions/hydrodynamics).”

TESTS
The report said a necessary step of a nuclear weapon development program were high explosive tests called “hydrodynamic experiments.” “Other information which the Agency has been provided by Member States indicates that Iran constructed a large explosives containment vessel in which to conduct hydrodynamic experiments. The explosives vessel, or chamber, is said to have been put in place at Parchin in 2000.” The IAEA was allowed to visit the site in 2005, but, by comparing satellite images, discovered that a building — believed to contain the explosive chamber — had been removed. “Hydrodynamic experiments…are strong indicators of possible weapon development.”

UNDERGROUND BUNKER
The report said that Iran was steadily installing more equipment, for enriching uranium, at a highly fortified site dug under a mountain at Fordow, near Qom.

MODELLING
Of particular concern to the IAEA were modelling studies involving a nuclear device, neutronic behaviour and nuclear explosive yield. “The application of such studies to anything other than a nuclear explosive is unclear to the Agency,” said the report.

THE TRIGGER
The IAEA said there was evidence Iran had experimented with a “neutron initiator.” “Such components, if placed in the centre of a nuclear core of an implosion type nuclear device and compressed, could produce a burst of neutrons suitable for initiating a fission chain reaction. The location where the experiments were conducted was said to have been cleaned of contamination after the experiments had taken place,” said the report. It added there was evidence that “Iran embarked on a four year programme, from around 2006 onwards, on the further validation of the design of this neutron source.” The IAEA also noted Iran was developing “exploding bridgewire detonators.” “Iran’s development of such detonators and equipment is a matter of concern,” the report said, citing links to an initiation system.

EXPLOSION
Documents indicated that engineering groups on Project 111, involving a new warhead for a Shabab 3 missile, also examined “the development of a prototype firing system that would enable the payload to explode both in the air above a target, or upon impact of the re-entry vehicle with the ground.” The report said, “Iran was shown this information, which…it dismissed as being ‘an animation game.’”

National Post, with files from Reuters .. http://news.nationalpost.com/2011/11/08/what%E2%80%99s-in-the-iaeas-report-on-irans-nuclear-program/

The Post today

Since Izzy Asper's acquisition of the National Post, the paper has become a strong voice in support of the state of Israel and its government. The Post was one of the few Canadian papers to offer unreserved support to Israel during its conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon during 2006.

One of its columnists referred to Hezbollah as "cockroaches." Canadian pundits argue whether the Post's support of Israel is a legacy of its late founder's political ideology or a shrewd business manoeuvre. .. more .. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Post