Replies to post #58645 on Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[CombJelly]

"The things I remember reading seem to indicate that AMD's plans for ramping fab36 aren't as fast as you indicate."

It doesn't have to be fully ramped to make a huge difference if it is fully 65nm. First, let us assume that the 17% or so of the market is the best that Fab30 can do. Fab36 uses 300mm wafers, each of which can have 2.25 times +/- of a 90nm wafer at the same geometries. In addition, at 65nm, that roughly doubles the number of die per wafer. Assuming that Fab36 is only running 1k wafer starts per week by the end of 2006, that would mean that AMD can roughly double its market share with the two fabs alone.

Chartered is a wild card, but it probably could add another 10-15 percentage points of production.

I do agree that if AMD can get to around 30% or so of the market, Intel's leverage is greatly reduced. Which is why

 
 a) that has been AMD's goal for a while 
 b) why Intel has been fighting tooth and nail to prevent it. 
 

The rate at which AMD can ramp Fab36 depends on what kind of funds it can scare up and the availability and lead time on production equipment. Getting Intel to back off of anti-competitve behavior and/or securing the appropriate loans is going to be the gate on this.