Replies to post #129980 on Biotech Values

[tinkershaw]

For small biotech companies that are burning cash at a prodigious rate, there is always mileage in impressing the investment community, at least in the short run.

If that is the case, it certainly was not for EXEL. They raised cash just after the bone scan data and share price hike, and have not raised any cash (to my memory - although not something I've deeply looked into) since the SPA became an issue.

I agree, you see SPAs disregarded from time to time, kind of like dealing with communist governments, or how about Darth Vader in Empire Strikes Back "pray I do not alter the deal more".

So if EXEL's motivation (primary or material) was to raise money, it served no purpose at all in that regard and has been rather a serious fetter on that motivation at the current share price.

The two trials, taken together, however, will be sufficient for FDA approval, assuming the data is otherwise up to expectations. So at least EXEL has that going, and that did not require an SPA. And EXEL does still have the chance of having the 06 trial produce such remarkable results that it may be stopped early...nevertheless, the FDA will probably require both trials for approval, even with that as confirmation of the survival benefit (assuming that EXEL can show a statistically significant survival benefit in the secondary indication that is really designed for non-inferiority survival) but is still possible.

Clearly EXEL would have been better simply not trying to obtain an SPA...lessons for future such management that will certainly be ignored I'm sure.

Tinker