A very rough estimate for 15-20k subs would be
$7.5-10mil
This is rough and hopefully conservative estimate. You can look at the 1st half 2011 financials. They made 1.5mil the first half with about 6k subs. If they keep the status quo that is 3mil annually. So that is about $500 per sub. Multiply the $500 by 15-20. This is overly simplistic as it does not break out subs revenue from ad revenue. Also, Dan has said that the 2nd half would be better than the 1st. I would also expect that ad revenue will go up next year. Of course, we will not have all those subs the entire year. If we estimate that we will have 10k subs by May, and grow another 3k through the end of next year and then make some assumptions about ad revenue I get a rough estimate of about $6-6.4mil in revenues next year. That would be, at least 100% growth YOY. I hope that is the conservative version. In an aggressive model you make a a case for the top line being $9-11mil next year. It depends on how quickly we can make acquisitions, upgrade the network, and grow subs internally. Ad sales will increase, but will be a smaller percentage of revenue. If all goes as planned ad revenue would jump exponentially towards the end of next year into 2013. All this is speculative, but they have executed well thus far.
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