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geopressure

10/23/11 3:04 AM

#5011 RE: Ecomike #5008

I have been looking into several pipeline companies lately as well. Most all pay considerable dividends & I see them as one of the best vehicles out there for longterm wealth growth especially don't need the dividends & can reinvest them. Below are a couple that I am especially fond of. I keep 30% of my holdings in this sector, mostly distributed between these three companies:

QRE - Just like all large Oil & Gas Companies, Quantum Resources has a strategy of acquiring leases, drilling, developing, selling - acquiring leases, drilling, developing, selling... and so on. Earlier this Year, Quantum spun off QRE who it sells it's developed properties to at a discounted price. About two months QRE bought over 500MM barrels of developed (no drilling required) reserves. Unfortunately, due to poor timing, the stock market overlooked the acquisition and has never adjusted to QRE more than doubling their reserves. QRE also pays an unbelievably high dividend. After 3rd Quarter dividends are out later this year, I would look for the market to be made aware of their oversight & the pps will climb.

D - Dominion, I think of D as the new LNG. They have plans to export Natural Gas, their chart hasn't had a bad day since 2009, or so it would seem. I think that all this stock does is grow.

SWN - SWN owns the wells, the rigs, the pipelines, the power-plant, and the power lines. SWN management recognizes that their stock price does not represent the value that would be present if it were separate company. They are talking about spinning SWN's pipe-lines off, making a dividend paying company that is though would be valued near the current value of SWN as a whole. I want to make sure that In for this deal. SWN also has over 1/2 million acres of 'prime' leases in the newly announced 'Brown Dense' Smackover Play. SWN calls their leases 'prime' because they have targeted acreage where the Smackover is at such a depth & temperature as to likely contain 41 degree API gravity crude - very near condensate, demands a premium to WTI Crude.

If buying into this segment of the industry, I would try & avoid any utility company owning a natural-gas fueled power plant if the company was bought, built, or changed hands during late 2007, early 2008. To turn natural-gas into electricity, utilities charge customers a "spark price" which is a percentage of the cost required to convert natural-gas into electricity. Back in 2007 & 2008, gas prices set records @ $11.00+/MCF. Most utilities locked these prices in with 4 & 5 year hedges, ensuring their spark-price would remain unrealistically high. These hedges are expiring soon & the utilities' revenues will be cut down to 1/3 of what it has been. Many companies & power-plants designed around the higher gas prices from 2007 & 2008 will fail going forward...

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On another note, the only reason that I'm trading today is because I set up an Ameritrade account for the sole purpose of accumulating MNLU / AEXP. I've been watching the company on a near daily basis for 1.5 years now & consider myself fortunate to have profited from MNLU financially as well as from an educational perspective. Leave it to me to be totally absent when the stock sees a 30% increase in value... I might grab a few shares on Monday because I'm sure that there is more to this new appointment than they are telling us. I'm thinking that MNLU longs will have a chance to see their $0.10-shares grow by a factor of 300 to 500% before the year is over. However, my familiarity with the drilling climate in South Mississippi has allowed me to identify obstacles that will make field development very costly, very slow, & very inconsistent going forward. I do not plan to advertise these views, but ultimately I expect that this project will fail until higher gas prices are realized in a decade or so. There simply aren't enough rigs in the region capable of drilling such wells & seasonal floods make it uneconomical to lock a capable rig into a longterm contract. This does not mean that the well won't be completed. MNLU / AEXP have a long way to go before hitting their ceiling, if indeed the well is to be completed. I would like to add this thought to savvy MNLU longs; this well will see huge numbers when tested & the pps will soar - I would make sure that I'm in when the project gets to that point. Again, it is not my wish to advertise my long-term views regarding MNLU's success