Replies to post #6590 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[go seek]

Should we expect the Judge to rule on the 20th?
or do they sometimes deliberate?

[Rocky3]

If MNTA gets a PI (as opposed to merely an extended TRO), the sell-side analysts will not be able to ignore the MNTA v. Amphastar lawsuit or treat it as an afterthought, which is what they’ve been doing up to now. Hence, your quasi-plan of buying shares cheaply after a PI is imposed does not sound realistic unless you have a mole at the courthouse who can give you instantaneous notice.

1) I have much less faith in the power of "sell-side analysts." IMO, the issue is whether the hedge funds, investment managers, mutual funds, and pension funds that constitute the big buyers/owners will continue to ignore the case. They clearly believed that tLov was going to enter the market any second for over a year. Will they find something else to believe to avoid being current owners? I hope not, but history is not very good so far.

2) I never said "my plan" was to buy more shares cheaply. In fact, I said that I had planned to buy no more, but would do so if the price did not move up as I thought that it should if a PI is issued. Maybe that qualifies as a "quasi-plan," but I meant it more as a statement that the market should recognize that a PI as a very positive fact for the future of the company.

3) I will not have a mole at the courthouse. But I'm sure others will. If I was Palo Alto, I would pay someone to be there. Any hedgie who is either long or short will have someone there. If there is ruling from the bench (which I doubt), the market will move in seconds (or at least it should).

[rwwine]

Quote - "If MNTA gets a PI (as opposed to merely an extended TRO), the sell-side analysts will not be able to ignore the MNTA v. Amphastar lawsuit or treat it as an afterthought, which is what they’ve been doing up to now. Hence, your quasi-plan of buying shares cheaply after a PI is imposed does not sound realistic unless you have a mole at the courthouse who can give you instantaneous notice."

I respectfully disagree. The analysts in general are too conservative and perhaps too busy to assess the value proposition of MNTA the way some of us do. Perhaps this is because while we only focus on a few companies, the "work load" that is expected by these analysts to cover so many companies overwhelms them to the point of publishing "thin in content" reports sometimes filled with errors and grossly incorrect assumptions. In short....MNTA's story is still too complex with too many uncertainties...thus until some of these uncertain conditions resolve themselves....it will continue to be a ho-hum attitude towards MNTA. JMHO

Even IF MNTA prevails with another TRO in the days to follow the court hearing tomorrow, I don't see Wall Street buying into MNTA any time soon. My perception is most of these folks are waiting for FDA approval of mCopaxone to validate MNTA technology.