Replies to post #128562 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Did over-thinking, combined with one of DD's favorite issues, do them in?

Are you referring to program-survival bias?

[jq1234]

In the control arm it will be a certainty that both severity and frequency will go down given enough time. This placebo effect has nothing at all to do with the patients reaction to the placebo, but just the natural course of the condition.

I would assume that what we are seeing is just the natural decay in symptoms on both arms, which gives less frequent and intense flashes to work on. Thus less ability to detect efficacy over time.

What you said are NOT true at all! Look at BREEZE 1 & 2 result, the actual effect (actual change from baseline at week 12 for both Serada arm and placebo) were declining dramatically, NOT JUST RELATIVE effect between Serada and placebo.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/299631-what-to-do-with-depomed-now?source=yahoo

Scroll down to BREEZE 1 & 2 result.

Did over-thinking, do them in?

No IMO, I am harsher than that. Thinking or no thinking, they can't change the fundamental issue of the likily fact Serada doesn't work at 12, 24 weeks. However they redesign the trail, rerun trials 100 times, 95 out of 100 would likely fail.