Replies to post #6170 on Momenta Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MNTA)

[investorgold2002]

Ahande,Rockrat,mouton,jbog,dub-narcotic,Hattie

your feedback would be appreciated !

[jbog]

Ivestorgold,

We can hope for the best, but by looking at the current stock price I'm guessing that the thousands of wall street lawyers who advise Wall Street don't agree with the boards consensus.

[HattieTheWitch]

Assume judge finds the PI motion is granted based on the likelihood that Momenta would prevail in the trial, what are the odds of settlement before trial gets over.

I have no earthly idea, because so much depends on the answer to the question: "Is Momenta's technology duplicable without infringement/has another method been found of reverse engineering enoxaparin?"

I think your analysis is good, but beyond saying that, I don't consider myself qualified to answer further. (I'm not trying to duck the question, it just seems like court activity is an extended length crapshoot)

Regardless, thank you for asking.

[MadCityCyclone]

assume assume believe speculate believe speculate.

do you read your own posts? do they seem lucid, to you?

[RockRat]

Somewhat uncharted territory in litigation related to generics, and I don't know what the FTC would consider anti-competitive or not in this instance -- or even how much say they'd have. So not sure what they'd think of a delayed launch. The alternative is a royalty, which I'm sure the FTC would have no problem with. But what Momenta could extract, I do not know. Is it possible to get a prospective ruling on delayed launch, or do the parties actually have to agree to it before the FTC says yes or no? I guess the latter would work to Momenta's advantage, as waiting for the FTC to decide while the PI is in force obviously adds more to their coffers.

Anyhow, tough call, at least for me. Uncertainty . . . = skittish investors.

Regards, RockRat

[io_io]

2.PI - in favor of MNTA based on likelihood of infringement. Amphastar's arguments basically "obviousness" of those testing methods 4. The 2 parties feel considering what is at stake and considering 50-50 chance of winning, agree to a settlement which will delay Amphastar's launch by a few years (maybe 3-4 years?)
5. This could potentially mean another few 100's of millions for MNTA generic lovenox revenue

Good predictions - so far. However I dont see Ampha delaying launch until a point in time where they would be 6th or 7th to the party.

And even "another few 100's of millions for MNTA" - that's $3 per share - but is it any more than that? That has been the problem, the horizon for mL is always in sight.

Actually I just realised that you probably made the last prediction before the AG was laucnhed.