Until you get official word on cancellation you don't know for sure, but you need to be careful.
As I see it there are three possible scenarios.
In one, shareholders do see something after the reorganization, as in Chemtura. You would still have a stake in the new company, but probably would have done better trading it on the way up.
In the second, you get cancelled and receive nothing, as happened with AbitibiBowater. That one seemed almost criminal to me as the company played quite the shell game with substantial assets.
In the third scenario, the shares are cancelled yet the ticker keeps on trading, like Circuit City. It would seem that this should have been cancelled long ago, but on it goes.
Cancellation of the commons might not be a foregone conclusion, but it doesn't look terribly hopeful here. Ambac hasn't caught a break with anything in the past few years.
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