Golf101 you asked so here is my guess
FICTION, SPECULATION AND WAG WARNING from here to end of post:
I cannot claim any expertise in stock prediction. However I can claim a history of a few “misreads” and outright failures to predict. :o(
I’m certain that whatever I forecast it won’t be dead on and there will be lots who disagree with my predictions especially the “go live PPS” . Definitely there are several seasoned penny traders on this board that will have a much better feel for penny stock response to news and events than I do.
Golf101 I try not to do public math or predictions but you asked and I do have a vision/SWAG of how I think it might go for ATIG PPS so for the fun of it here goes:
Keep in mind assuming a go live of TGN this Fall that until around the end of 2012 Q1 or even Q2 ATIG will still be operating from stock sales until revenue starts to catch up to expense. That means for each event that peaks the PPS, it will slowly drop back driven by company stock sales until the next event or until revenue starts covering the majority of costs.
• Announce TGN startup Tribal names – key group of initial tribal participants to work the kinks out of the system – PPS will probably stabilize at around $0.0150. There will be a few that sell some stock around $0.01 for some cost recovery or quick profit.
• TGN “go live” announcement. Revenue stream/trickle begins with this event. – Depending on how well publicized and/or advertised this will likely spike PPS to at least $0.0375 or so but will have trouble getting there quickly. Most longs will probably be selling about 10% to 20% of their cheap shares to recoup their initial cost and I predict that will start at around $0.019 with the bulk of the cost recovery around $0.024 which will put up a pretty strong resistance against reaching $0.03 but once the majority of longs get their costs covered and a few take profits they will hold out for the platinum ring with their remaining “free” shares. That will drive the price up if there is still enough new demand from the advertising and publicity.
• OTCBB SEC filing with reverse split. Crystal ball is really fuzzier here. Suspect that PPS will be back around $0.0275 when that paperwork gets turned in and if they go 1:10 then PPS moves to $0.275 if they go 1:20 it moves to $0.55. Of course your number of shares is also reduced to one tenth or one twentieth. That is just the conversion price starting point and with enough publicity this could jump to $0.65 or higher on speculation on a new arrival on the OTCBB. This will be about the time we will know for sure if the online poker bill is passed and whether ATIG is ready to support USA customers with the TGN Cake Poker SW. This is a big if because Cake may have put a no competition clause in the ATIG agreement. That won’t stop the speculation on ATIG making lots of money off of the other games and revenue sources on the TGN intranet.
• First full quarter of operation Form 10 q. This will be the first time they will actually have reported net revenue (positive or negative) and you will be able to come up with a P/E ratio prediction based on earnings, growth potential (percentage of possible casinos/tribes extrapolated from number of startup participants and the revenue they generated). $?.???? This could go up or down dramatically depending on how well the TGN produces in the first few months of operation. This is where reality meets with speculation and expectations. I would say that if the forecasted annual net is around $5m ATIG should trade around $0.60+ after a 1:10 reverse split.
As with all stock investments you should do your own DD, analysis, prediction, and always use stop loss and profit protection automatic trades to protect yourself.
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