The answer is not that simple because it depends on how the final OS data shake out. If the final OS hazard ratio is 0.85 or better, I think the probability of FDA approval is excellent; if the final OS HR is between 0.85 and 0.90 (it was 0.88 at the Apr 2011 cut-off—see #msg-63952008), I think the probability of FDA approval is good but not great; if the final OS HR is between 0.90 and 0.95, I think the probability of FDA approval is fair; if the final OS HR is 0.95 or worse, I don’t think Rida will be approved.
Ahead by 3.5 games (vs TB) with 16.5 games to go is not such a bad place to be. However, the Red Sox have to get some key people back from injuries to have any chance to do damage in the postseason.