Replies to post #126396 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

CS is a little too bearish on Humira, IMO; from the same write-up:

As to the impact [of Tofacitinib] on Humira, we expect the drug to reach peak sales of $8.5 billion in 2013, and then in 2015 and beyond begin single-digit-negative growth as clinicians become more comfortable and interested in using oral agents like tofacitinib.

See #msg-61383188 for a somewhat more bullish forecast.

[DewDiligence]

Tofacitinib could see peak sales of $2.6 billion, says Credit Suisse.

This $2.6B forecast (from Sep 2011) is more reasonable than the $1.5B peak-sales number cited by the Citi analyst in #msg-75407327, IMO.