The dividend for 2013 alone -- payable in 2014 -- projects to $.24.
I think that their raising the dividend to 12% of income, half in cash, was a clever compromise between conserving cash to fund very fast growth in this two to three year rapid business establishing window, while also raising the commitment to reward shareholders. It may be creating some procedural difficulties in declaring the pay out date. In the future, it would be nice if the dividend were paid earlier in the year.
Unfortunately, in this environment of distrust, it appears hard to have most anything positive believed. There's even a risk of numbers being "too good." In any case, no growth company would, or should, pay out 33% of income, imo.
At least SIAF does have an announced plan to circumvent the environment that holds the multiple so low; namely, spinning out subs to an Asian exchange. Hopefully, this will be a topic on the upcoming call. I think they are open to suggestions how to promote credibility in the interim. For now, they are somewhat hamstrung by the Form-10 process. But once on the other end, they will be able to say that they've been recently seriously vetted by the SEC, perhaps one of only a handful in 2011. And I think you'll see significant regular news releases, as so much is happening on so many fronts.
The fish business is targeted to add 3-4 farms in 2011, and is on schedule; 6 in 2012 and 9 in 2013. I believe these are realistic/conservative projections, which result in $158M in 2013 revenues and about $.90 eps.
An extremely low p/e of 5 values this sub at $4.50. By growth rate and average Asian multiple, it should be much higher.
There's a long way between now and 2013. But the path is clearly laid out to monitor progress on two related fronts: meeting the underlying milestones, leading to making the numbers, and enhancing the credibility of the company.
Personally, I'm a little surprised that some hedge fund(s) haven't taken advantage of the mostly disreputable short attackers. If some funds took positions in 10 researched companies in the space selling at forward p/e's of 3 or less, they'd make money, even if 33% went under.
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