Replies to post #125674 on Biotech Values

[pollyvonwog]

I would agree the trial conclusion may be that far away, but see no reason to believe that a FDA decision (aka approval) won't come tomorrow, for instance.

Also, doesn't everyone and their sister's hairdresser know that the mini-trial will go in TEVA's favor?

And, of course, I'm in the T-enox will never come camp :)

[mcbio]

There are a couple of very near term upcoming events that should affect the share price before. First one is reasonable confidence that Teva will prevail in the ruling re Copaxone mini-trial on inequitable conduct argument (minor positive). The other is strong data for BG12 from its second phase III (CONFIRM) trial (major negative). After these there's the possibility of tL approval (major positive in the moral aspect).

I would argue that the sum of probabilities from these events doesn't exactly paint a great picture for TEVA's share price in the potential interim either. As you say, the mini-trial or inequitable conduct ruling is likely at best just a minor positive. If tL approval even happens, as you note, that may be just a moral victory that doesn't flow to the bottom line in a big way. So, I assume that isn't likely to do much for the stock either. And if BG12 gets approved, and I'd have to think the chances are good on that front given the strong Phase 3 results from the initial trial, that is, as you note, a major negative. So, all told, I can't see these events in total doing anything but likely push the share price down further. I think I'd be most interested in a position in TEVA post these events and post the potential mC approval.

And if BG12 does get approved, I think TEVA should seriously consider doing a deal for XNPT's potentially better BG12 candidate. I'm biased on that front of course. ; )