Everybody needs to do their own analysis of where the overall market will go. Opinions vary :).
Heres a tidbit: The BDI, Baltic Dry Index, which is a pretty darn fundamental 'pulse of the world economy' has been surging the past few weeks. That is not consistent with ideas that the world's economic activity is 'falling off a cliff'. China export's have been very strong lately, to EUROPE of all things. Not quite consistent with activity over there going haywire either.
Nobody can say we have not experienced a slowdown, but the markets have gone down 18%. The average recession has markets go down 25%-27%. We have priced in quite a huge percentage of that and still have no recession -- Simply a decent probability of one.
The market can go lower, but it can go higher from this point as well. I invested a good chunk of my portfolio around the lows of last Monday -- We have yet to break lower than that on either the S&P or DOW. Many many stocks are significantly higher than the lows from that big down day, thankfully every single one I bought (Lucky!).
Good luck to us all!
Note: I now have 25% of my portfolio in semi-cash (What I call Agency REITs like NLY, AGNC (my favorite) and ARR). If the markets go lower, say to around DOW 10000, then i'll take it out of those and invest that part of the portfolio as well.
-Fernando
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