Just who, exactly, do you mean by "they". There is a wide range of opinions on this board about what and when to expect it. Lumping them all into "they" is not likely to give any useful observations, IMHO.
Since you are new here, I would suggest that paying attention to who says what over a period of time would give more useful information as to whose "predictions" are reliable or not (usually the latter).
"Expect to be surprised" is IMHO the most accurate prediction. This is biotechnology. Investment approaches dependent on close timing of events are unlikely to be successful over the long term.
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