Replies to post #587 on Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd.(fka EXMCQ)

[eastunder]

RE: Are we in the EYE of the Hurricane? Or is the storm over?


If you add....'is the storm just begining?'.... you could have covered all the options, wisdom. LOL

[Ecomike]

For now, we are in the eye of the storm, but the storm may die, or we may enter the other side. For now, it can go either way, and with OPEX this Friday, the bounce rally is likely to continue for a week. We may not know the real direction (we may go sideways here)for 3-4 weeks, or more at this point. Volatility will be real, and nasty, and news will trigger whipsaws!!!


BDI and dry bulk shippers are a special case. While Apple, and similar success stories and timing may carry the markets up from the recent lows, the BDI has a severe over supply of ships, higher fuel costs, way over valued book values as they have not marked down the ship values to market value, and the commodity demand is already high, so if commodity demand falls any, some BDI shippers will start to have refinancing problems, and a new round of Europe bank problems may squeeze the shippers that need to refinance anything. So I think, for once, Zachs may have gotten it right.

There are many other really beaten stocks that have dividends, that I think may be better buys today, if we do not go into a double dip recession.

[Ecomike]

Looking at the BDI has me thinking it may be time to buy here. But I have not kept up. Looks like the last 10-Q has book value at 1.6 billion dollars and less than 90 million shares, for a book value per share of nearly $20/share?

Is that right? Am I missing the land mine (other than recent losses on the quarter), And selling for less than $2/share!

If the markets rally, this could be good for a real nice bounce short term.