Totally agree. Markets don't bottom based on economic data but when the last panic seller dumps his last share. Look at the bottom in March 2009 for a good example.
With respect to the S&P downgrade, the media and this board are completely overblowing the impacts (http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=65929545). The downgrade will cause additional volatility to the markets however when everything shakes out there will be an immaterial impact to rates. In 2002, Japan had a similar downgrade of its debt and the impact was insignificant.