Replies to post #124449 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

DNDN

Whether you characterize the problem as cash flow, reimbursement risk, cash density, or some other creative appellation, the salient point appears to be that the end-user demand for Provenge is less than many people thought until yesterday.

??? Cash flow and risk of reimbursement are unquestionably very very different than end-user demand (end user being patient). E.g. quite possible to have a line of patients out the door but doc's not willing to treat for cash flow or risk reasons. And the solutions are very different.

That said, without more data it is impossible to disentangle the root cause - all risk issue, all cash flow, or all end-user demand? Probably some of each, but the ratio is the all important piece of missing data.

[AlpineBV_Miller]

There may be a demand issue, but what Dendreon is experiencing now has nothing to do with demand. End users who REALLY push their urologist are being referred out to academic centers and getting treated. The average patient accepts the urologist's claim he is being put on a waiting list.

Expect Dendreon to partner with certain practices to create "Provenge - No Waiting" ads in select markets, or the practices to do it themselves.

We can argue about whether the market demand exists, but saying "cost density" is a dmeand issue confuses an already confusing point.