A good point that SIAF is trading with peers. And it has much further to go to prove it will make 80% of revenue and profit targets than the other companies, who forecast good, but much slower growth. 50% of revenues would be a disaster, and many remain skeptical.
There are several reasons SIAF ultimately should get a MUCH higher multiple over time.
1) All the U.S. listed China companies will get more respect -- even less disrespect would be a double -- after the bad apples are thoroughly shaken out and the short attackers are barely visible in the rear view mirror.
2) SIAF's revenue and profit guidance represents HUGE growth. Once achieved -- or even 80% -- there must be some premium afforded. Their PEG ratio will be minute, in any case.
3) Making 2011 revenue/earnings targets -- or coming close -- GUARANTEES high growth in 2012. This is simply not true for other companies. Not only do 4 fully operating fish farms produce 4x the fish sales of 1, the equity positions in each are slated to grow, so profits will jump at an even faster pace than revenues.
4) Achieving 6x revenue growth builds critical mass in most all businesses, such that further growth is facilitated. For instance, there will be two demo cattle farms, one each for cold and warm climates. Likewise, the demonstration fish farms for sleepy cod, prawns, and eel, all will have real sales. Gotta be a whole lot easier to get JV partners when well beyond proof of concept to proof of profit.
5) Suddenly, instead of 2011 $50M looking unbelievable, 2012 $150M+ revenues looks very believable.
IMO, the market will believe the story only as they see it, with Q3 numbers being the major catalyst. As long as the Q2 numbers are decent, and the Q&A reveals that the businesses are on track, that may well provide 3 months of optimal accumulation time, even with a rising share price.
Least, that's my tea leaves, for now.
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