kipp440 re VPHM:
I have listened to 3 of the 4 recent conferences. The FBR presentation yesterday, with slide show, is well worth the time. Viropharma has an excellent website, and you can access presentations through the website.
1. Vancocin: There is one product, Vancocin, that is being marketed. The CEO refers to "strong net sales" and describes prior guidance(i.e., May 3 raised guidance!) as "conservative." He states that, while they thought deal with Eli Lilly was a good one, they now know it is an "excellent one" -- an understatement in my book. My impression -- only an impression -- is that the company will be raising guidance again, possibly before Q2 earnings are announced in August. Insiders are buying the heck out of this stock, and they are privy to information on a monthly basis that gives them a good sense of net sales for Q2; my assumption is that if May 3 guidance is too conservative, they will want to get info out sooner rather than later. However, in these presentations they have not released any sales numbers beyond Q1 numbers that were the subject of Q1 PR.
2. Pipeline: I know next to nothing about the science. With that caveat, they have two apparently promising drugs in development. For both drugs, they are in joint venture arrangements with major pharmas. The company seems particularly excited about HCV-796, for hepatitis C infected patients. But it is in phase 1, and I assume that the trip from here to market, even if future trials go well, will be a long one.
3. Pleconaril: Possible cure for the common cold. Notwithstanding what is said in Newsweek article, VPHM has sold all ownership and development rights to Schering Plough. VPHM does have a contractual right to certain progress payments on the achievement, if ever, of certain development milestones, and to "high single digit" royalties if/when the product goes to market. In the fall Schering Plough is supposed to announce its intentions regarding Pleconaril. Could be interesting . . .
Impressions from presentations, FWIW:
* This management team is very good. They seem capable of taking advantage of the company's good fortune resulting from Vancocin deal.
* Company is focused on shareholder value. After all, many insiders have reached into their own pockets to buy shares on the open market.
Hope this helps.
Steve
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