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treit2002

07/18/11 5:33 PM

#6342 RE: viking86 #6341


Viking,

I think I answered your question about $.45. There should be no issue there. They earned $.18 already in Q1, greatly because of the dairy sale.

As for, "C'mon $58m from $3M:"

1) 2011 Q1 revenues of $3.1M was 10 times the 2010 Q1 revenues from continuing operations.

2) The businesses are ramping fast; expect exponential growth each successive quarter of 2011.

a) Q1 included consulting/servicing revenues from the one existing farm; expect Q2 to have revenues from 2; Q3 to have revenues from 3, and Q4 to have revenues from 4. These contracts are generally as planned in the projections, and on track.
b) Expect similar ramps from fertilizer, feed, cattle, and new sheep profit centers, as the fruits of 2011 investment are being realized as 2011 progresses.
c) the businesses were always seasonal, especially HU flower and the new asparagus crops which will have 100% of revenues in Q3 and Q4.

I find these projections aggressive, but believable. Of course,the proof is in the realization. So, we need to see continued YoY growth of multi-three digit percent in every continuing business; also, announcements that presage exponential quarterly progress; new cattle house construction, feed and fertilizer capacities growing and sold, expansion of existing fish farms, new fish farm construction/contracts, and HU and asparagus harvest sizes.

Again, because of the lengthy Form-10 process, many of these metrics will occur before we hear about them.

I wish I could pinpoint a Q2 revenue figure that would indicate being on track. My guess is $7M - $9M. Ranged quarterly revenue guidance would be nice, to better track to yearly guidance.