more about VSGN, from that most reliable of sources - it's YMB, quoting some southern Ontarios source:
(my comment would be that there is speculation here, but the upside appears substantial, if proven ....)
Twice, in the past three years, we have written here about a small, little-known Canadian health-sciences company called Vasogen. We own Vasogen stock -- perhaps too much of it -- and thus far, we are in a more-or-less break-even position with it.
Unfortunately, we've held it for six years, and the cash tied up in in the company has represented a so-called "opportunity cost.'' We'd have done better, in other words, had we socked the loot away in a GIC. But that's not the point of this update.
Mississauga-based Vasogen is a highly speculative stock. The company has no revenues to speak of and no authorization as yet to bring its treatments to market in North America. As a result, it racks up per-share quarterly losses of 15 to 20 cents a share or so as it bears the costs and awaits the results of two final-stage clinical trials for its treatment of peripheral arterial disease and chronic heart failure.
Vasogen's treatment for these high-profile ailments is drug-free. Instead, Vasogen's immune-modulation therapy, which it calls Celacade, involves the use of a vial of the patient's own blood, which is extracted, placed under the stress of oxidization, and then re-injected. The process literally fools the body's immune system into fighting arterial and cardiac inflammation.
Vasogen has spent $150 million US to develop the treatment and its Phase 3 trials are now in their late stages, with results for both expected within the year. There are 500 patients enrolled in the PAD trial and 2,000 more in the CHF trial across the continent, in Europe and in Israel.
The PAD trial is being led by Dr. Jeffrey Olin, Professor of Medicine at the Mount Sinai School of Medicine and Director of Vascular Medicine at the Zena and Michael A. Wiener Cardiovascular Institute in New York.
The CHF trial is being led by another medical heavy-hitter, the world-renowned Dr. James Young, chairman of the Division of Medicine at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation.
Ultimately, the kicker for Vasogen and its investors-- and, most importantly, its patients -- is that if the Celacade treatment is approved for commercialization in North America, it may also hold out hope and promise for sufferers of neuro-inflammatory ailments such as Alzheimer's disease, multiple sclerosis, and ALS, which is more commonly known as Lou Gehrig's disease.
Celacade may also have application for treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and perhaps even AIDS.
These are high-profile, difficult ailments, all of them, and they represent enormous market opportunity -- in the billions and billions of dollars -- as well.
The question for investors is whether the risk is worth the reward.
If commercialization is denied because trial results don't meet the accepted standard, Vasogen's shares could fall to zero, or close to it. If commercialization is approved, the sky is literally the limit.
This, as we have noted before, is either a strikeout or a grand-slam home run.
The company is being followed by an increasing number of U.S.-based investment houses, most of them not household names.
The big guys, more conservative and risk-averse, likely won't put forward a view on Vasogen until the ruling comes down on commercialization.
Those analysts and investment houses that view Vasogen with favour tend to have a "speculative buy" rating on the company's stock. Most have a 12-month price target in the $10 to $14 Cdn range. The most recent "buy'' comes from Adams Harkness with a $12 US target price.
The most optimistic forecast comes from Nigel deGruyther of Research Capital, who believes that Celacade has enough treatment potential and a high enough safety profile to have it positioned medically as the "standard of care'' for treatment in North America, Japan and Europe.
Last year, deGruyther issued an analysis suggesting that Vasogen could generate what he called "modest'' earnings per share of $4.55 Cdn in 2007, increasing to $11.54 in 2008. That's earnings per share -- multiply those numbers by an assumed and very reasonable 10 or 15 price-earnings ratio and you can imagine what Vasogen's share price might look like in a few years.
Vasogen shares closed yesterday at $5.41 Cdn in Toronto and at $4.29 US on the Nasdaq and have been in a mild uptrend for the past month. They've been as high as $18 over the past six years, but their recent trading range has been between $4.60 and $5.50 Cdn.
But, share price aside, there is clearly something happening with Vasogen this spring. This small, relatively unknown Canadian biotech -- and its potentially ground-breaking Celacade treatment -- are featured favourably in the June 6 issue of Forbes magazine, one of the most influential business publications on the continent.
This week, Vasogen was a featured presenter at the prestigious Needham health-sciences conference in New York and was listed on the CNBC business network as one of the "companies to watch'' at the Needham bunfight.
This story will evolve in one of two ways: If all goes well, Vasogen and its revolutionary treatment could be one of the big medical discoveries of the decade. If it doesn't, a lot of people will lose a whack of money. That, I guess, is what makes a market.
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