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Replies to post #19547 on Options Media Group Holdings, Inc. (OPMG)
07/09/11 7:06 PM
07/09/11 7:10 PM
Elijah,
If the company can show 1 billion in sales, then we'll start talking about 5-10 bucks a share...until then, that is just irresponsible, toss a dart, pull a price out of thin air, posting with no knowledge of how a company is valuated.
just trying to keep the board real and intelligent
posting 5 and 10 dollar SP makes this board look like a bunch monkeys humping a football.
IMO
Jim
"now that you understand that you can put down the pencil, the charts, current filings, all of it. You don't need it anymore with this kind of play. For example, do you realize how many people wasted so much time and stress trying to look at charts and RSI and whatever DD they could on LEXG's pop and after all that homework, studying etc they thought they were a genious and sold at $4 with great profits only to watch it go to 5,6,7 and 8 faster than they could take a #2, then said darnit its never gonna stop, I'm not losing out on anymore of this upward spike, so they got back in at $10 only to watch it tank, thereby eating up all of those great, great profits as fast as he made them. Nobody expected a pop to $10 so what good did all that DD do for him? Absolutely nothing more than a blindfold and a dart throw would have done correct?"
The share structure is not important here. Given the development with QVC and Apple coming on board in August, the game has again changed in a sense that we are positioned to capture a really big chunk of the existing demand just on the teenager market side (over 10 Million alone).
I would like to again emphasize the importance of capturing early demand because competitors will enter the market (although I think it's a bit too late). The idea here is that consumers do not usually buy a second product like PhoneGuard, hence it is important that we are the first and only product purchased by the +10MM demand out there. We will capture a big chunk of that and there is no doubt in my mind about this.
Even 50% of the teenage demand would give us revenues of $150MM. This can be accomplished during the critical phase of the campaign--the first 3 months now that we seem to have finalized the preparations for the launch, our distribution network, marketing/promotion, product...etc.
Even with the derivatives in the books, 5MM PhoneGuard sales should put OPMG not only BIG time cash positive but also allow us to book a net profit by a hair even at a pps of $1. This can be accomplished EVEN with an O/S of 1 billion shares folks.
If we adjusted the books for the derivatives, OPMG--at 5MM PhoneGuards sold--should deliver a positive EPS of 15c. Then we apply a multiple of 6 and that would give OPMG a conservative share price of 90c. Why? Because the market is forward thinking and can see that OPMG will achieve these numbers from targeting just the teenager market! The P/E is probably too low but I like to keep things real. I know some folks will be bent out of shape for my bringing up the derivatives but this issue must be taken into consideration as we evaluate the magnitude and direction of OPMG's future pps. It would be foolish not too. This is an item that we must look at on the 2 10Q and see what's happened with the warrants together with the O/S.
There is nothing stopping this from getting to $5, or even $10. Logic says that you are right, but Greed is an amazing thing. It doesn't know logic, logic is its enemy. Just don't let it catch you out, on the way up, or on the way down.
The product is a $29 per/year + 1yr subscription.
I'm giving this an average of 3 yr subscription per app sold
20 million apps X 3 = 60 million x 29
1.7 billion valuation / fully diluted shares (770k approx) = 2.29 per share
That sounds reasonable to me with 20 million apps sold. Imagine if they sell twice, three, or times as much. Do the math.
AI
