Replies to post #123117 on Biotech Values

[Regulardoc]

In my experience, there is significant seasonality related to elective hips and knees. Although regionally climates vary, most people in the northern part of the country will elect to have surgery in the fall or winter due to physical down time. We also see a pickup in Oct-early December due to people having met deductibles and out-of-pocket maximums. Regardless, at present, no real competitor to enoxaparin prior to Xarelto.

Guess we'll have to wait until July 19 to get more exact numbers for total M-enox business.

[DewDiligence]

If you plotted the green line in #msg-65022529 against the number of US orthopedic-surgery procedures, you would probably find that the patterns match up pretty well.

[rwwine]

Quote

"the difference in script volume between May and June"

I may be way off base here, but something that would be interesting to consider is the seasonality of conditions (DVT, etc…) as a functionality of warmer weather versus colder weather. Is it possible that warmer weather resulting in significantly increased outside activity thus lowering incidences of DVT and related conditions because the population is on the move so to speak? In the absence of physical activity, is it more likely that blood stagnates causing various health events that require medical treatment? Just a though here….. as one looks at these numbers in an attempt to explain the slight (or not so slight*) downturn in prescripts from May to June. Is it possible to get more historical data going back 3-5 years to look for this type of occurrence?

TIA