GURE - don’t expect these guys to do what is good for the short term investor - they are playing to the funds not to short term traders.
They said about Daying that they would fund all the investment with Cash Flow and Debt and not equity - up to $230 million over 3 years - plus they have waited 4 months to even talk about this deal - they are not pumping. What is the advantage of saying that after it is clear that the deal was signed a few months ago. They have a shelf ready to go, but will not use it now for next few years as they have committed to no new equity - how may firms can say that will a $230 million project come at them. They would not of said they would do debt UNLESS they already had a committment - but don;t expect any PR until the notes is signed and deal is done.
When the buying starts it could just maybe be China Party money outside of PRC IMO - has anyone ever seen a fixed deal in a developing country - someone wins, family of govt, and my guess is it’s the smart red money held outside of PRC. But time will tell. They will hear long before we do what happened on those test wells and when a deal with the Banks or Devel Authority is signed. Just putting that out there – after we have been beaten to death on China Shorts – expect inside party favorites to be a part for the 5-10 bangers for the very few that do blow out coming down the road in the Rer Merger space.
Insider buying - you will not see it - the only one with cash is the Chairman and he already owns a boat load - exec team does not have the resources to buy in the Market - unless they can do it Jacky CCME style.
They are holding off on the buyback to stop any short shot clearly - that is why they did the special setup so they can buyback at anytime - as they said on the conference call - they have always done what they said they would do - so expect the buyback to happen over time when it is needed.
You will hear news about Daying in next 3-6 months. With GURE they work hard, make it happen then put out the press release - by the time the PR hits is is old news.
Expect shorts to reduce significantly over next 4 weeks, unless you think that some surfer dude from Huntington Beach who was in sales for the original pumpers is a credible short legend. Look at that guy on The Street - even the guy doing the interview was grinning - you have got to be kidding. If it was Muddy or friends GURE would have a big problem. This guy is the jock short want to be.
If you don;t agree it should be a great short for ya cause its going one way or another in short order for sure.
The only problem with GURE was the crowd that took them out years ago - they have been very very clean since then from what I can tell. Plus who has done a better job documenting against shorts. Yes the internal controls are not green, but they invited Deloite into the house without a warrent to make sure they are good - expect that to be cleaned up at the end of the year and to be spotless.
All just IMO and nothing worth any serious money, honest - not that vested for an argument either - just hope you make money any way you can.
Anyone looking at those Tier 1 IPO for a hard swing ... any insight there
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