black, re. Hurst, you are asking a very thoughtfull question - but let's look at some of the issues:
1. What percentage of individuals that own stocks (or mutual funds) do their own research? I would venture a guess of max. 5% based on my experience talking to my family members, friends, and co-workers. Now, the quesion is WHY they do not do their own research (homework)? One could write a whole essay on this, but there is host of reasons, but chiefly imho that they are just NOT interested in doing their own research - and in a sense you have to have certain passion to do anything well in life, including (and especially) trading the markets, and the vast, vast majority of people simply do not have that passion.
2. So, out of the 5% of the people that do their own reaserch, what percentage trade by T/A vs. F/A? Remember, according to the "experts", T/A is "vodoo" or "black magic" type of analysis, and is NOT for "serious" analysts, which of course do F/A. But I will be generous and say that 50% use T/A. But of that 50% using T/A, how many have heard of, and then started to do Hurst analysis? My guess is less than 1%.
So, we have 5% do their own research, of which 50% use T/A, of which 1% use Hurst (and most likely I am very optimistic in those estimates) - that would be 0.025% of all owners of stocks or mutual funds - and that's a tiny, tiny sliver of the investing/trading population - and what event would get them to now ALL suddenly start using Hurst (or any single/universal type of analysis for that matter) is beyond me.
Finally, regarding Hurst in particular, I bought his book at amazon.com, and before buying was interested to read the members' reviews i.e. comments about the book, and even though almost all had nothing but praise for the book, here is my "favorite" review of the book (which I think would apply to the (at least initial) reaction of 90% of people if you were to "pitch" Hurst's methods to them):
"don't recommend this book, November 1, 2000 Reviewer: A reader It's a technical analysys book that employs a lot of wrong assumptions in order to build a trading system. For instance, it says about 4.5 years, 18 months, and 52 weeks market cycles in order to time the market, which is impossible. Waste of time."
and I guess that is exactly what your experience has been as well in talking about Hurst to others.
finally, have a question - looking at the U.S. population, there is a huge percentage of people that are overweight, and for the most part they all acknowledge that they are overweight, and for the most part they all say that they would like to lose the extra weight. And how do you lose weight? By eating less (and reasonably healthy), and exercising 3 times a week - it's as simple as that - and you are GUARANTEED to lose ALL of the excess pounds - and everybody knows this - so, why are all these people still overweight????
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