Replies to post #122692 on Biotech Values

[microcapfun]

re: micro - onxx

You're right - I was way too bullish about Nexavar expansion into Asia on the basis of high HCV/HCB/liver cancer rates. I agree Nexavar sales have been relatively disappointing. I guess the drug is too expensive and offers too little benefit in the areas where liver cancer is most prevalent. Also in patients with severe liver damage, the drug is too toxic. That might be the majority of patients with liver cancer.

Carfilzomib looks good - agreed. Too bad there won't be much sales and marketing overlap between a blood cancer drug and a solid tumor drug. Also the company has to start from scratch in Europe.

I think the Proteolix acquisition was smart. There's a guy named Lasowski that CEO Coles hired early on who is apparently very good at corporate development (M&A). When he was hired he was told: "You are the pipeline." At that point the company had no early R&D/preclinical group at all, no drugs in development, nothing except Nexavar.

So the company and the CEO has done some good things. But I'm still not that impressed. I met the CEO once and he rubbed me the wrong way. Strikes me as a pompous, greedy, control freak, though I could be wrong. He has fired a number of good execs, which disturbed me. And I think expenses haven't been managed that well.

I guess the main reason I have soured on the company is that they don't have any edge, any platform technology. Coles made one good acquisition - though it wasn't cheap. That's about it.

I still own shares, but will sell the rest of them eventually.

micro

[vinmantoo]

jack,

I will add my two cents. I too was a bit over-optimistic about Nexavar sales in Asia with regard to the time frame. Asian sales are growing, just slower than I expected. I think it has only been about 6 months since S. Korean worked out the government re-imbursement. That hasn't happened yet in China, but I recall off-hand that there are still significant sales there. I also recall that sales haven't yet peaked in Japan so let's not dismiss Nexavar sales in Asia quite so quickly.

I will agree with micro that it looks like ONXX needs to do a much better job in controlling costs. I believe their ending the jak inhibitor joint venture was along those lines. Obviously the near term price drivers will be whether Carfilzomib will be granted accelerated approval and how the lawsuit with Bayer plays out.