Replies to post #122685 on Biotech Values

[DFRAI]

Microcapfun

I suggested ONCY at 3.00 and it made it to 6.50 aprox. A lot of other people suggest stocks and i dont see you getting on their case. Nor have i ever suggested a medical background, investment background. I hold a small position that i am confortable with - why dont you go after that guy/investment letter that also carries ONCY on their roster... Miller something...how dare somebody suggest a stock that you dont agree with...

Get a life...

I made an investment in ONCY and i promise not to come after you to make up my losses nor does Acuity who holds 16-17% of the company, so give it a rest. I mentioned the stock a few times at critical dates etc

You are trying to discredit me or embarass me...with the quotes below....can i just call you an asshold and be even?

i am not giving my theses in biotech investment, nor do i need to prove to you or anyone else my biotech prowess, nor do i need to get your endorsement or dew's etc - can you get that?

1. Randomized trials are not necessary because we can just compare to historical data - which doesn't change much over the years. pretty sure its my quote

2. Success in animals implies success in humans. [Virtually no drug makes it to Phase I w/o success in animals!] dont think its my quote
3. Success of a somewhat related drug implies success of my company's drug. [But OncoVex, a Herpes simplex type 1 virus *engineered* to not replicate in normal cells and *engineered* to express GM-CSF, is EXTREMELY different than the naturally occuring reovirus!] not my quote
4. If a fund buys a lot of my company, they must know what they are doing; that is evidence my company will succeed. [If you think a fund does better DD than you ... BUY THE FUND!] no thanks, i rather buy the bio co. i heard that some of these funds have phd on staff to give them an edge in selecting stocks. since i have no edge - i choose to consider a rather large position as an added plus - you can do what you want...
5. There is no need for a pivotal Phase 3 trial to be built upon a similar randomized Phase 2. dont think its my quote

6. If the CEO says it - it's true. i do the investing myself - not trusting you, dew or the ceo , and i wont take up your time to explain how much % weight i give to the ceo in my evaluation
7. My company would not have moved into Phase 3 and started preparing for launch if they were not fairly sure of success - and since they're fairly sure, I can be as well. blatant lies made up by you

8. If my company pays a well-known company to manufacture the drug, it is a very good sign. A well-known company wouldn't waste its time with losers. [The key word here is "pays".] typically you have to pay to get something in return and if you want to manufacture a virus you pay one of the best company that has a virology mft capability.

9. If my drug + a standard drug improves the condition of cancer patients, then it is clear that my drug works. it would have to exceed the soc term - synergistic is the key word

10. There is nothing suspicious about my company carrying out a string of small, single-arm studies over ~ a decade that prove nothing regarding efficacy. maybe they learned something during the last decade - dont bother to follow them

11. If the stock goes up, that's a good sign. If it shows weakness, it should probably be sold. [See post #120060!] i guess you dont have a sale strategy...i should explain to you if and when i sell a stock

[DewDiligence]

I reposted a slightly modified version of this on the PPHM board. It's eerie how well your list applies there. Regards, Dew

[DewDiligence]

…every biotech newbie mistake in the book.

micro, you forgot this one: “If a vice president from a large pharma company joins your little biotech, the company’s programs are sure to succeed—why else would a well-paid executive with job security jump ship?” :- )

The FCSC and PPHM message boards are Exhibits ‘A’ and ‘B’ for the above thinking.

[haysaw]

6. If the CEO says it - it's true.

#6: Case in point - DFRAI touting BQI on various boards (11/30/2010):

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=57202348

Major stock upside - BQI

company published 8k today stating that 2 executive will be paid retention bonuses if they stay thru 2-28-2011 for "an event"

the only event is the sale of company for a much higher price than .43 in my opion

do your own dd

Update - BQI now trades at .30c per share. That is what DFRAI calls the "safest trade?"

[DewDiligence]

Micro, I’m adding yet another item to your list of newbie-investor misconceptions:

“If bearish posters are active on a company’s message board, they must be desperate and hence great things are about to happen for the company.”

The FCSC board on iHub is a fertile venue for this notion.

(I previously added to your list in #msg-64848710: “If a vice president from a large pharma company joins your little biotech, the company’s programs are sure to succeed—why else would a well-paid executive with job security jump ship?”

Maybe I should keep an updated list in the Biotech Values iBox so we can refer to it easily when the inevitable pumping posts arrive. Comments?)

[DewDiligence]

Yet another item for microcapfun’s list (from #msg-66086158):

At this point, every day that goes by without a statement from the company makes me more confident in this investment.

The FCSC message board on iHub is a mother lode for such pearls of wisdom.

[DewDiligence]

Perhaps the silliest biotech-newbie mistake: “If knowledgeable posters are bashing a stock, it means they are trying to ‘accumulate’ shares, so it must be strongly bullish!”

I’ve seen this posted literally hundreds of times on biotech message boards; the most recent instance was on the PPHM board a few minutes ago: #msg-70072332.

[DewDiligence]

Common Biotech-Newbie Mistakes

[Updated with contributions from several posters who are not individually credited here.]


Drug programs:

1. “If a drug does something notable in animals, it must be safe and effective for humans.”

2. “If a drug from the same class succeeds, it means my company’s drug will succeed too.”

3. “If a drug with the same mechanism of action succeeds, it means my company’s drug will succeed too.”


Dealings with the FDA:

4. “If a drug has Fast Track status, it means FDA approval is very likely.”

5. “If a drug has a Priority Review, it means FDA approval is almost certain.”

6. “If a drug has an Expanded Access program, it must be safe and effective, so the FDA will obviously approve it.”

7. “If a company has a meeting with FDA staffers and does not issue a negative press release, it means the FDA agrees with everything the company is doing.”


Behavior of company management:

8. “If the CEO says a company is talking to partners, it means a partnership is imminent.”

9. “If a company goes into a period of radio silence, it means they are negotiating a big partnership deal or buyout.”

10. “If an FDA application is started on a rolling basis pending the completion of clinical data, it means the data are positive. The company would not waste so many man-hours of work on the submission if it weren’t.”

11. “If a company is preparing for a launch—e.g. by advertising for sales reps—it means their drug will surely be approved.”

12. “If a company holds an investor conference call on a different day of the week (or a different time of day) from prior conference calls, it means a hugely bullish announcement is coming!”


Miscellaneous:

13. “If a former executive from Big Pharma joins a small biotech company, it means the small company must be a winner!”

14. “If the company’s Scientific Advisory Board has one or two famous individuals, it means the company’s drug candidates must work. These people would not align themselves with a failure!”

15. “If Rodman & Renshaw issues a positive opinion on a company, it means the company’s prospects must be bright.”

16. “If a well known investor or hedge fund owns shares, it means the company will surely succeed.”

17. “If a small biotech company is located in the same town as a Big Pharma, it must be a top candidate for a buyout.”

18. “If knowledgeable posters are bashing a stock, it means they are trying to ‘accumulate’ shares, so I should increase my holding!”