Replies to post #10071 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[bellweather1]

Dilution:

I don't think I've ever seen Ariad do an offering for only 10mil shares, although it may be more likely because of the current price.

Of course, if they did, it would tend to mute any sell-off because the dilution would be relatively minimal.

Although I can see the temptation, (particularly in view of the macro situation), I'm more and more convinced that with the prospect of the rida $25 mil due, and the easy overhanging option of an Asian Pona partnership, that the pressure may be minimal, and they may choose to wait to get into the 14-17 area.

It seems to me they have a lot of strings to pull to help them get there, and 150mil+ certainly beats 100mil.

So if they think they can manage this(and the recent volume supports that thesis) then maybe that's their plan.

A 10mil dilution at that price(due to the cash cushion it would provide) would be even more likely to charge pps, and, imo, suggest a short-order target in the $20-25 range.