Its truly a black box. Late in 2010 I spoke with one the guys liquidating LaSalle Re but have no idea on what anything is. He told me similar to the announcement that the only asset is the $5M in bonds due to TALLC of which 2.5M is senior and 2.5M is junior. I assume the juniors are worth $0. Then you try to figure out what a % recovery is for the senior bond and the time to final distribution for a potential return %.
There are only 3M shares so right now and the ask is sitting at $.15. That means you need to break in you need the bonds to be worth $450k. Now further assume that since this is risky you demand a return of 30% and you expect this to complete by Dec 31, 2012 which means the bonds need a return of $667k and it ends by 2012. Assuming the junior bonds are worth $0 the senior bonds needs to be worth $667/$2,500 = 26%. So if they can get a 25% recovery its worth my while, that said I only own 11k shares at $.08 on average.
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